Thursday, May 7, 2015

5/7/2015 Lining up for a Top


Sector Model
XLE
-1.62%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
JOY
12/8/2014
-16.46%
150
RS
12/11/2014
6.60%
147
AGCO
1/23/2015
15.72%
104
SSYS
3/3/2015
-42.31%
65
PWR
3/9/2015
-1.16%
59
BHE
3/31/2015
-3.80%
37
CBI
4/2/2015
3.78%
35
MTZ
4/9/2015
-6.00%
28
HUN
4/28/2015
2.24%
9
CCL
4/30/2015
-2.14%
7
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
11.72%
Sector Model
Annualized
21.70%
Full Model
Annualized
18.51%
S&P
Total
54.63%
Sector Model
Total
116.58%
Full Model
Total
95.04%
Sector Model
Advantage
9.99%
Full Model
Advantage
6.79%
Previous
2015
S&P
53.06%
1.03%
Sector Model
122.60%
-2.70%
Full Model
101.13%
-3.03%

 

My computer was having troubles for the past few weeks and I had to run the model on a borrowed one. Now that I have my hardware troubles solved I can get back into a little more detail than before.

No improvement for the year.  The market is barely up and the model is barely down. 2015 is a struggle, but most of the struggle was mean reversion back to the long term benchmark for the model:



 

No doubt about it: 2014 was a good year for the model – too good in fact. The model, like the market, sometimes does better than average, sometimes worse, but averages out to average (which is why they call it average).

The model is clinging to the benchmark like a scared monkey on a branch. Last year it stayed above benchmark. We’ll eventually have a year below benchmark. But the benchmark – the average – is the long term path.

PUBLISH
Bear
THRIFT
Bear
TOBACCO
Bear
AUTO
Bull
B2B
Bull
ELECTRNX
Bull
RAILROAD
Bull
COAL
Top
ENGCON
Top
OILFIELD
Top
POWER
Top

 

A look at the preferred industries for the full model shows a strong agreement with the Sector Model: this is a market top configuration.

Keep in mind that the model tries to stay 1 to 3 months ahead of the price action. So, a top on the model is a time to watch the market give a nice pop upward. I don’t time, but it’s interesting to watch others who do.

Tim

 

 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment