|
Sector Model
|
XLU
|
2.10%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
PWR
|
3/9/2015
|
-4.69%
|
139
|
|
CBI
|
4/2/2015
|
2.10%
|
115
|
|
MTZ
|
4/9/2015
|
-11.02%
|
108
|
|
DRQ
|
5/15/2015
|
-20.26%
|
72
|
|
RES
|
5/19/2015
|
-18.02%
|
68
|
|
SPN
|
5/28/2015
|
-21.28%
|
59
|
|
NOV
|
6/23/2015
|
-14.12%
|
33
|
|
INT
|
7/7/2015
|
-0.29%
|
19
|
|
CAJ
|
7/14/2015
|
-1.99%
|
12
|
|
GAS
|
7/21/2015
|
-1.17%
|
5
|
|
(Since
5/31/2011)
|
|||
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
11.06%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
17.87%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Annualized
|
14.32%
|
|
|
S&P
|
Total
|
54.60%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Total
|
97.96%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Total
|
74.32%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
Advantage
|
6.81%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
Advantage
|
3.26%
|
|
|
Previous
|
2015
|
||
|
S&P
|
53.06%
|
1.01%
|
|
|
Sector Model
|
122.60%
|
-11.07%
|
|
|
Full Model
|
101.13%
|
-13.33%
|
Not much to comment: the mean reversion continues.
The Sector Model is still slightly above benchmark, which
isn’t comforting in the least.
The sector ratios are continuing to indicate a likely bear
or correction in the broad market.
The full model is also showing the beginnings of defense in
its industry selections:
|
ADVERT
|
Bull
|
|
CHEMDIV
|
Bull
|
|
HEAVYTRK
|
Bull
|
|
PIPEMLP
|
Bull
|
|
COAL
|
Top
|
|
OILGAS
|
Top
|
|
INSLIFE
|
Bear
|
|
NWSPAPER
|
Bear
|
|
POWER
|
Bear
|
|
TELESERV
|
Bear
|
|
WATER
|
Bear
|
Meanwhile, my OILFIELD stocks have all been slammed hard.
No guidance from the Fed, and I wouldn’t trust it if we had
it. There are just too many variables out there for anyone to say for sure what
the near term will bring.
Wish I could say more, but all I can do it update my numbers
and grit my teeth while this storm passes.
Tim
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