11/26/2015 Mouse, Rabbit, and Turtle

Mouse	XLE	1.20%
Rabbit	Date	Return	Days
BT	8/11/2015	2.40%	107
TM	8/12/2015	-3.99%	106
MMP	9/4/2015	-8.23%	83
ED	9/17/2015	-1.36%	70
DY	10/30/2015	13.68%	27
RJF	11/2/2015	5.70%	24
CVS	11/6/2015	-5.67%	20
WEC	11/13/2015	-0.85%	13
TMK	11/23/2015	0.28%	3
WM	11/25/2015	0.09%	1
Turtle	Date	Return	Days
BT	8/11/2015	2.40%	107
TM	8/12/2015	-3.99%	106
MMP	9/4/2015	-8.23%	83
ED	9/17/2015	-1.36%	70
DY	10/30/2015	13.68%	27
RJF	11/2/2015	5.70%	24
CVS	11/6/2015	-5.67%	20
WEC	11/13/2015	-0.85%	13
TMK	11/23/2015	0.28%	3
WM	11/25/2015	0.09%	1
	Since 5/31/2011	Annualized
S&P	55.28%	10.30%
Mouse	100.93%	16.81%
Rabbit	72.66%	12.93%
Turtle	72.66%	12.93%

As promised for the past three years, I am finally adding a long term component to the model. To keep things straight and simple, I now have three names for the three types of the model: Mouse, Rabbit, and Turtle.

The Mouse is the small ETF model.

The Rabbit is the short term stock rotation appropriate for IRA accounts.

The Turtle is the long term stock holding model appropriate for Taxable accounts.

Right now the Turtle is just a clone of the Rabbit, but with each new trade the Rabbit and Turtle will part company.

The average holding period on the Mouse is about 1 month.

The average holding period on the Rabbit is about 3 months.

The average holding period on the Turtle is a little over 4 years – approximately one business cycle.

The holding periods are calculated from the median return rates on all stocks ever selected by the model since 5/31/2011:

The Rabbit is calculated from the best holding period in an IRA account, and the Turtle is calculated from the best holding period in a Taxed account.

A slight complication to the blog, but a necessary one. Full diversification requires 20 positions, with options for both Taxed and non-Taxed accounts.

Tim