Friday, June 24, 2016

6/24/2016 Hit and Miss

I had a paired trade on the Rabbit toward the close.  ORA hit the sell and the other half of the trade failed on the buy.

I've kept a limit order good till cancelled for Monday.  If it doesn't hit I'll find an alternative.  For the weekend, the ORA position is inadvertently in cash.

Brexit is the first set of dominoes on a nationalistic period in world history.  With the exit of Britain, greater pressure will be put on the European Union, threatening its collapse.  Paradoxically, the Trump to market feedback loop will be similar to the feedback loop we experienced eight years ago with Obama and the market:

The better Obama did in the polls, the worse the market performed.
The worse the market performed, the better Obama did in the polls.

The paradox now has to do with the economic effects of the coming trade war, with Brexit being the first shot.  The nationalistic move shook the markets, which strengthens the likelihood of an American nationalistic move in November to elect Trump.

We live in interesting times...

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