Saturday, January 27, 2018

1/27/2018 Weekend Update

Sector Model
XLI
1.45%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
BT
8/11/2015
-43.55%
900
TMK
11/23/2015
51.62%
796
NVR
12/16/2015
112.80%
773
CMP
2/19/2016
16.61%
708
NVR
2/22/2016
121.76%
705
AMWD
3/17/2016
93.71%
681
CASY
5/12/2016
-0.56%
625
AEM
6/7/2016
-5.81%
599
ESRX
6/13/2016
-0.90%
593
AMED
6/16/2016
6.77%
590
FRO
6/27/2016
-34.05%
579
ASTE
7/12/2016
5.58%
564
MFC
9/1/2016
59.11%
513
SFM
9/8/2016
26.58%
506
CFFN
9/12/2016
2.53%
502
FOSL
5/11/2017
-40.10%
261
HIBB
7/25/2017
63.74%
186
FOSL
7/27/2017
-21.65%
184
HZO
8/1/2017
30.64%
179
CMPR
12/27/2017
1.43%
31
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
12.02%
Sector Model
Annualized
17.26%
Full Model
Annualized
14.87%
S&P
Total
113.04%
Sector Model
Total
188.85%
Full Model
Total
151.83%
Sector Model
Advantage
5.24%
Full Model
Advantage
2.85%
Previous
2018
S&P
98.38%
7.39%
Sector Model
172.95%
5.82%
Full Model
145.63%
2.52%



Both models are lagging the S&P for the year.  So far the economic expectations I discussed in the 11/13/2016 note are holding.  Taxes and regulations are down, but now we are beginning the trade wars with the first shot going after solar and laundry machines.  The weakening dollar makes actual returns (versus nominal returns) for 2017 somewhat below the mean, rather than above.

The Fed is holding to its forecast of pulling out of the QE balance sheet, but momentum is holding.  Since I don’t time it doesn’t much matter on my own methodology.

On an interesting note, BT, which has languished near the bottom of the fundamental parameters for a couple of years now, has finally crept back near the top.  CMPR and NVR are in the best positions.  And FOSL is dead last.

Tim

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