Sunday, July 15, 2018

7/15/2018 The Market is Waterlogged


Sector Model
XLI
-0.08%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
BT
8/11/2015
-54.10%
1069
TMK
11/23/2015
41.28%
965
NVR
12/16/2015
87.06%
942
CMP
2/19/2016
5.42%
877
NVR
2/22/2016
94.94%
874
AMWD
3/17/2016
34.16%
850
CASY
5/12/2016
-2.70%
794
AEM
6/7/2016
-7.76%
768
ESRX
6/13/2016
7.34%
762
AMED
6/16/2016
86.56%
759
FRO
6/27/2016
-25.88%
748
ASTE
7/12/2016
6.01%
733
MFC
9/1/2016
41.55%
682
SFM
9/8/2016
13.26%
675
CFFN
9/12/2016
2.40%
671
FOSL
5/11/2017
76.66%
430
HIBB
7/25/2017
78.24%
355
FOSL
7/27/2017
131.07%
353
HZO
8/1/2017
39.73%
348
BCE
5/31/2018
8.05%
45
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
10.82%
Sector Model
Annualized
13.49%
Full Model
Annualized
15.68%
S&P
Total
107.84%
Sector Model
Total
146.37%
Full Model
Total
182.23%
Sector Model
Advantage
2.68%
Full Model
Advantage
4.86%
Previous
2018
S&P
98.38%
4.77%
Sector Model
172.95%
-2.39%
Full Model
145.63%
14.90%



Lots of motion sickness in the market.  Given the five year holding period for each stock on the model, so far it’s mostly noise.



The industries in the buy-zone, however, tell a bleak picture:



ADVERT
ENGCON
FUNL SVC
FURNITUR
GROCERY
HLTHSYS
NWSPAPER
REINSUR
TELEQUIP
TELUTIL
WATER



Nothing exciting?  It gets worse: the most interesting stock I would buy today (if I were due for a rotation), is AWK, American Water Works.



When the best stock in the universe appears to be a water company, we aren’t looking at good times ahead.



Tim






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