|
Small Portfolio
|
XLF & IAU
|
18.40%
|
|
|
Position
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
|
DECK
|
6/15/2012
|
-24.07%
|
121
|
|
RIMM
|
7/16/2012
|
7.59%
|
90
|
|
OKE
|
9/25/2012
|
-0.02%
|
19
|
|
SEAC
|
9/25/2012
|
1.59%
|
19
|
|
CAJ
|
9/25/2012
|
-9.10%
|
19
|
|
DDAIF
|
9/25/2012
|
-4.63%
|
19
|
|
SSD
|
9/25/2012
|
-4.54%
|
19
|
|
AF
|
9/25/2012
|
-1.91%
|
19
|
|
AM
|
9/25/2012
|
15.83%
|
19
|
|
NSC
|
10/8/2012
|
0.57%
|
6
|
|
S&P
|
Annualized
|
4.51%
|
|
|
Small Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
13.39%
|
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
16.82%
|
There are no scheduled rotations going into the week. Nice boring hiatus for a potential transition
in the markets.
The market has very obviously stalled, but the question is
what it will do next. At the risk of
stating the obvious – I don’t know. But
I want to emphasize that last phrase, because I don’t even have an opinion.
Since people tend to forget when they are wrong and kick
themselves for not acting when they are right, they very urgently want to have
an opinion. Any opinion.
Well, I don’t have one.
The sector configuration is long term bearish, intermediate term
bullish, and short term mixed. Breadth
and funds flow are turning down, but only in sync with the market. It’s merely confirmed that the market had
acted in an orderly fashion in its recent stall.
I do think we are at an inflection point, but it’s too early
to tell one way or the other. This is no
problem for the Mousetrap, since it doesn’t time. But market timers are in a tricky spot. Tight stops should be called for in either
direction, but whipsawing could wipe out any recent gains in a matter of days.
Tim
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