1)
6.35% SPY
2)
10.30% Full Mousetrap portfolio
3)
8.99% Small portfolio
Year to date is:
1)
16.43% SPY
2)
16.21% Full Mousetrap portfolio
3)
17.83% Small portfolio
Performance from 5/31/2011 (when the models were launched)
is:
1)
11.26% SPY
2)
24.81% Full Mousetrap portfolio
3)
20.03% Small portfolio
SPY is the simple spyder ETF that tracks the S&P 500,
including dividends.
The Full Mousetrap portfolio (for an investor with more than
20,000 to invest) rotates through ten stocks based on technical industry
selection and fundamental stock selection.
The Small portfolio (for an investor with 20,000 or less to
invest) rotates through two ETFs. One
ETF is a secular hold, which rotates once every 5-10 years on average between
IAU (gold) or BND (bonds), based on whether we are in a secular bull market
(favoring bonds) or a secular bear market (favoring gold). The second ETF rotates several times a year
between sectors. It is currently holding
XLF (financials).
We can see a little parabolic bump on the Small portfolio as
we went into Bernanke’s third round of quantitative easing. Whether this will continue into a bubble is
unknowable, but it will bear watching.
That said, we appear to be entering a global recession in spite
of the best efforts of central banks to delay it. Value stocks (which are the selections of the
full Mousetrap) tend to have a difficult time going into a recession, but
ultimately outperform as we near the bottom and the market begins to
rebound.
A successful market timer would outperform – but that
assumes he is successful. Most
traditional methods of timing stopped working after automated computer trading
began to anticipate such moves in the general market. And in these days of quantitative easing,
“bear markets” may just go sideways instead of down, making timing even more
problematic.
For these reasons, my own model does not use timing. It is designed to go down less, and up more,
and over time should continue to grind out an advantage over SPY.
Tim
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