Saturday, December 14, 2013

12/14/2013 the lump of coal hits Argentina


Sector Model
XLU
-0.16%
Large Portfolio
Date
Return
Days
ABX
4/11/2013
-30.45%
247
NEM
9/30/2013
-16.11%
75
BCR
10/4/2013
16.45%
71
ED
10/18/2013
-3.24%
57
ISRG
10/21/2013
-3.61%
54
EW
10/28/2013
-20.27%
47
ARLP
11/11/2013
0.67%
33
JOY
11/18/2013
-5.44%
26
OXY
11/27/2013
-6.03%
17
OUTR
12/2/2013
0.47%
12
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
11.54%
Sector Model
Annualized
22.74%
Large Portfolio
Annualized
27.88%

 

Rotation: selling OUTR; buying FFIV (again).

A bit of churning while the model goes nowhere.  Although technically 0.47% in 12 days is equivalent to an annualized rate of 15.27%, it’s hardly anything to brag about.

Meanwhile, after unloading FFIV a few weeks ago, that stock went down about 1% and stopped.

1% is hardly a buyable dip.

A very unexciting time.

In the news, ABX is closing down an unprofitable Argentinian mine and laying off almost a third of their total workforce (which corresponds to the third I’ve lost in it so far).  I’m no expert on how this layoff will affect the stock, but my guess is this may stop the bleeding.

And that’s a sour point to me.  I like fundamental investing over technical trading because I usually profit when a business (and employees) succeed together.  I want to win when others win.  I don’t want to recover when others get laid off just before Christmas.

I hope they can find other work and that their families will be okay.

As far as the broad market is concerned, the sector model’s move to XLU is hardly bullish.  And the money-flow into XLU is unusually strong for the model.

Something negative is afoot.

That lump of coal I looked at last week keeps peeking out of its stocking.

Tim

 

 

 

4 comments:

  1. +FFIV/-OUTR looks like a great pair trade so far.

    ReplyDelete
  2. LOL -- and then there's ABX to keep me humble...

    ReplyDelete
  3. HFT at work prior to announcement by Fed on start of tapering QE? http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1387400400000&chddm=1173&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSEARCA:XLU&&fct=big&ei=AfyxUqCHCMn1qwHJnAE

    ReplyDelete
  4. Fascinating. Yeah -- some cheating going on out there.

    ReplyDelete