Thursday, February 13, 2014

2/13/2014 rotation


Style Model
Mid Blend
Sector Model
XLU
0.00%
Large Portfolio
Date
Return
Days
ABX
4/11/2013
-21.19%
307
NEM
9/30/2013
-18.88%
135
EW
10/28/2013
-13.43%
107
JOY
11/18/2013
-0.71%
86
OXY
11/27/2013
-4.92%
77
MUR
12/23/2013
-11.50%
51
SWM
12/31/2013
-11.99%
43
TM
2/3/2014
2.44%
9
RS
2/10/2014
4.28%
2
CSCO
2/12/2014
0.62%
0
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
11.81%
Sector Model
Annualized
25.98%
Large Portfolio
Annualized
26.73%

 

Rotation: selling OXY; buying ITRI.

Please note the correction to the matrix after the close.  The sector model will move into XLU if there is a favorable gap (unlikely).

Otherwise I’ll recalculate before the close.

Tim

 

9 comments:

  1. ITRI is on a short-sale restriction (which I believe means it can fall quite further) based on just announced earnings. What fundamentals are used by the model? I'm guessing the pre-announcement... ouch

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  2. Got it at a great price, actually. I think the panic should be limited. Part of it has to do with a lawsuit that was announced yesterday.

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  3. Hi Tim, just a clarification - when you say great price, do you mean relative to the pre-earnings fundamentals or the post-earnings fundamentals? I guessed the model didn't have the earnings fundamentals yet to calculate, but maybe it did?

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  4. Long term growth and value. The model actually tries to target an atypical earnings miss. Remember that high current P/E often coincides with low long term P/E.

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  5. Just to give a little detail: on a Growth-Value Blend target (the current call on the Style Model) I'll look at 5-year Growth in EPS, Sales, Cash Flow, and Book Value. I'll also look for high inventories. I don't even look at P/E. It's basically meaningless, since I'm already targeting a depressed industry.

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  6. Thanks for clarifying, it's the possible out-of-sync fundamentals-based calculation that I was concerned about.

    Re XLU, did the EOD calculation perform the switch?

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  7. Yes, we made the switch. Annoying when the Yahoo data has a hiccup. It's a fantastic service, but when there's an interruption you sure can miss it!

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  8. Was that a hiccup in fundamentals or market data? I used DTN/IQFeed before, very reliable (market data only). 15-min delayed $60/month, Real-time $100/month.

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  9. Hiccup in market data. The intraday data wasn't working. We make the switch around 3:45 on the control set and 1:45 on the client portfolio.

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