Style Model
|
Large Value
|
||
Sector Model
|
XLU
|
2.07%
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Date
|
Return
|
Days
|
ABX
|
4/11/2013
|
-19.20%
|
346
|
NEM
|
9/30/2013
|
-10.95%
|
174
|
JOY
|
11/18/2013
|
0.12%
|
125
|
TM
|
2/3/2014
|
-6.44%
|
48
|
RS
|
2/10/2014
|
2.22%
|
41
|
CSCO
|
2/12/2014
|
-4.71%
|
39
|
CBI
|
2/20/2014
|
8.72%
|
31
|
BHP
|
3/3/2014
|
-4.37%
|
20
|
DUK
|
3/10/2014
|
-1.40%
|
13
|
HFC
|
3/17/2014
|
-1.39%
|
6
|
(Since 5/31/2011)
|
|||
S&P
|
Annualized
|
12.35%
|
|
Sector Model
|
Annualized
|
25.67%
|
|
Large Portfolio
|
Annualized
|
26.07%
|
No rotation today.
Not much to comment on either. The market is defensive. Seems waiting for something, but I have no
clue what it could be.
ABX is officially beyond my boundary between a three month
hold and a three year hold. Both it and
NEM are most likely bottomed out, and stand to experience a considerable gain
in the next few years. Although
regression analysis isn’t foolproof, it’s normally a useful sanity check for a
company that isn’t likely to be overcome by a technological revolution (like
Kodak). ABX digs things out of the
ground. They’ll be digging things out of
the ground for a long time to come:
This is a standard deviation channel – set at two standard
deviations on each boundary. “Median
value” on this stock is roughly double its current price.
Sometimes you just have to let the stock come to you.
Can’t force these things.
It’s like fishing. Sit back,
relax, wait for the fish to take the bait.
In this case, doing nothing IS doing something.
Tim
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