Monday, April 6, 2015

4/6/2015 Sit back and kick off your shoes


Sector Model
XLU
-2.56%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
UVV
12/2/2014
20.61%
125
JOY
12/8/2014
-23.66%
119
RS
12/11/2014
1.02%
116
AGCO
1/23/2015
7.52%
73
SSYS
3/3/2015
-15.91%
34
PWR
3/9/2015
0.39%
28
COG
3/25/2015
6.40%
12
BHE
3/31/2015
0.00%
6
CBI
4/2/2015
0.08%
4
DECK
4/2/2015
0.45%
4
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
11.80%
Sector Model
Annualized
22.68%
Full Model
Annualized
19.44%
S&P
Total
53.65%
Sector Model
Total
119.65%
Full Model
Total
98.12%
Sector Model
Advantage
10.88%
Full Model
Advantage
7.63%
Previous
2015
S&P
53.06%
0.39%
Sector Model
122.60%
-1.32%
Full Model
101.13%
-1.50%

 

Long birthday/Passover/Easter weekend for family and friends.  I’m waiting to fly back to Long Island to get back to work.

The market remains in limbo as everyone tries to process whether the economy is sound enough to withstand a rise of interest rates this summer.  The news is getting old, and my guess is that folks will get bullish out of boredom at just the wrong time, then sell in a panic, then miss out on the next move up (whenever that happens).  It’s a reasonable guess since it is what the market does 99 percent of the time.

The Sector Model is floundering in utilities:

 

But the Full Model shows a majority of bullish industries in play:

PUBLISH
Bear
TOBACCO
Bear
UTILCENT
Bear
ELECTRNX
Bull
ENGCON
Bull
HEAVYTRK
Bull
RAILROAD
Bull
SHOE
Bull
STEEL
Bull
COAL
Top
OILPROD
Top

 

The most significant to DOW theory is Heavy Truck and Railroad – both bullish for the economy.

I may be blind as a bat, but nothing here points to any reason for panic.

Open a newspaper, light your cigar from an old coal oven, turn on the stereo, and kick off your shoes.  That’s what Mr. Market is doing, at least.

Tim

 

No comments:

Post a Comment