Monday, January 2, 2017

01/02/2017 The Saner Path

Sector Model
XLB
1.79%
Full Model
Date
Return
Days
BT
8/11/2015
-33.14%
510
DY
10/30/2015
5.31%
430
TMK
11/23/2015
23.02%
406
UPLMQ
12/1/2015
80.80%
398
NVR
12/16/2015
0.62%
383
CMP
2/19/2016
16.91%
318
NVR
2/22/2016
4.86%
315
ENOC
3/15/2016
-18.03%
293
AMWD
3/17/2016
10.10%
291
CASY
5/12/2016
4.25%
235
AVB
5/24/2016
0.58%
223
AEM
6/7/2016
-16.08%
209
ESRX
6/13/2016
-9.38%
203
AMED
6/16/2016
-15.38%
200
FRO
6/27/2016
-7.22%
189
ASTE
7/12/2016
15.07%
174
MFC
9/1/2016
31.61%
123
SFM
9/8/2016
-3.86%
116
CFFN
9/12/2016
18.53%
112
FIG
12/6/2016
-4.33%
27
(Since 5/31/2011)
S&P
Annualized
9.53%
Sector Model
Annualized
15.19%
Full Model
Annualized
12.29%
S&P
Total
66.43%
Sector Model
Total
120.54%
Full Model
Total
91.27%
Sector Model
Advantage
5.65%
Full Model
Advantage
2.76%
Previous
2017
S&P
66.43%
0.00%
Sector Model
120.54%
0.00%
Full Model
91.27%
0.00%

Now that the short term (Rabbit) and long term (Turtle) strategies have been recombined, I will be listing the total returns for all stock trades from all iterations of the model, and proceeding with the long term holding period of the Turtle.

With a single stock model and a single etf model, I’ll go back to the simpler naming convention of the ETF “Sector Model” and the Stock “Full Model”.



As can be seen from the graph, the Sector Model continues to behave consistently between the backtested and live traded returns.

Both models are, as they say, “ready for prime time”.  I’ll continue with the blog, but allow the models to self-evolve according to the performance metrics embedded into them.  The average holding period on the Sector Model is just shy of a month – with some holds whipsawing a few times in a week and others lasting for months.  The average holding period on the Full Model is five and a half years, and growing.

That translates to an average trade on the Sector Model to once a month and on the Full Model to once a quarter (i.e. one out of twenty stocks).  It’s possible to have several quick trades on the Full Model, but those will be extremely rare.

And that’s that.  The Models are complete.  It’s just a matter of continuing to invest and plan for retirement.

Good investing everyone.  Let’s have a saner path to retirement than the stock flippers and day traders do.

Tim


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